IMHO, the most important races today are in two states: Iowa and Texas.

You cannot overstate how devastating it is for a political party's fortunes once the other party has captured all the major statewide political power: both U.S. Senate seats, the governorship, and both chambers of the legislature. When that happens, your state party starts to wither - badly. I mean, of course you've lost current political power, and that comes with a whole lot of consequences for your agenda. But structurally, you start to lose all of the middle.

You lose the middle because many of the folks in the middle naturally just join up with the majority party. The guy who wants a political career, and who would have been a very conservative Democrat, instead becomes one of the more liberal Republicans. Donors and businesses that would have given to both parties, or supported both parties, just to cover their bases are now just giving to the majority party. Organizations that would normally have been unequivocally part of your coalition now end up doing a lot of work with the majority party, because they just have to - the majority party controls it all. Yes, there are always Congresscritters and local officials - but that has a limited benefit for the statewide party. The statewide party is just incredibly weak if there are no statewide officeholders or if their party doesn't control a branch of the legislature.

So it's a very big deal with a minority party is able to grab an important office in a state like that. And the Democrats have opportunities in two states to do that. If Talarico can win in Texas, he brings an instant massive shot of power to Texas State Democratic party - as now all the businesses and "middle" folks that have been able to get by only playing with Republicans find themselves needed to have relationships with a Democrat for the first time in decades. And there's two races in Iowa that the Democrats are competitive in - and while it's only been a decade that the Democrats have been completely out of power there, getting one or both of those seats would be hugely important.

Obviously they're also important for control of the Senate - but I think they're especially important because of this opportunity.