No. of Recommendations: 1
There's always a typo or two, but this sentence really got mangled:
Buffett being a creature of habit, and having a fine sense of convention, for instance, how much of a stake can you buy before you are conventionally supposed to make an offer to buy the whole thing, I am guessing that there is a X% chance that that offer will be made in the next month or so. What is X? I don't know. My guess is that it is 30.
Sorry about that. Ok, let me try again:
How much of a stake can you buy before you are supposed to make an offer to buy the whole thing? Buffett probably has as good a sense of the law and market conventions as anyone, along with a desire to buy as many shares as possible without the control premium. Given the fact that he made the BNSF takeover offer when he had acquired 22.6% of BNSF at market prices, now that we're up to a 22.1% position in Occidental, we may not be far off from an offer, if that is Buffett's intention.
We obviously don't know whether that's what he wants or not, but it's possible, with X% probability. What is X? I don't know, 30 would be my guess, but whatever it is, if it happens, it might well be in the next month or so.
