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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝 GOLD
SHREWD
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Number: of 21939 
Subject: Re: Jim, thank you ...
Date: 01/05/23 2:53 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 19
As correct as that was from then until today let me please invert this (Munger, the Apostel of "Invert, always invert!", just had birthday): So it was bullish before that date.

Indeed.
If you're interested in looking it up, these are the signals. (at market close on the day shown)

2008 [wasn't bullish for quite a while, followed by...]
2009-06-01 Bullish
2010-09-15 End of bullish
2010-10-05 Bullish
2011-09-21 End of bullish
2012-01-10 Bullish
2015-10-09 End of bullish
2016-04-20 Bullish
2018-06-19 End of bullish
2018-07-13 Bullish
2019-02-14 End of bullish
2019-03-13 Bullish
2020-07-10 End of bullish
2020-07-20 Bullish
2022-05-26 End of bullish

It's not a great market timing signal.
But, it seems to achieve its goal: identifying the stretches which are relatively safe: it seems like a still-ongoing bull market.
It sorts out good times from relatively uncertain times.
I tend to invest in slightly different ways depending on its state.

This is using the signal exactly as described in this old post
http://www.datahelper.com/mi/search.phtml?nofool=y...

By construction, it is always bullish for around 5 months after any market top, so all the "end of bull" signals are late.
But rather surprisingly, the stock market is usually down only around 8% from its peak week by the time the "bullish" tagged stretch ends.

Jim
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This community has written 21,448 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 57 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 54 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
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