What I really worry about is the polymarket disassociation from those who experience consequence. We all know there is insider trading, whether it is the vulgar volume and frequency seen now which go unchecked, or whether we put Martha Stewart in jail for fairly paltry things.

The moral hazard of the polymarket stuff is that, mostly in a DoD scenario, some choad in the administration (or who knows, maybe even a Cabinet appointee) knows something will happen or not happen and bets on it. Then it happens or doesn't happen but in this case not only do they get a payoff, but people might bleed.

And the worst scenario is when someone causes a low likelihood thing to happen, but that causes people to bleed. And they don't care because they got paid. And it didn't need to happen because American interests and world safety and blah blah blah were not on the line. But someone bleeds.