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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝 GOLD
SHREWD
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Number: of 6131 
Subject: Re: Dividend investing
Date: 06/23/25 3:02 PM
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FWIW

These are my estimates of the portfolio balance for some dates since 2006 spaced roughly quarterly, and the estimates of the forward one year cash dividends.
Note! That's quarterly dates, but anticipated one YEAR of dividends.

The dividend dollar amounts expected are just the balance on that date times the estimated forward yield at the date shown. The yields are calculated by actually running the screen on old Value Line export files, though I didn't do it for every single date.

The numbers are probably off by a bit, mainly because forward dividend yield figures are not always right. But the "real" figures are probably not too different. Except maybe the spring 2020 one, since the pandemic threw off dividends by quite a bit - lots of cuts.

              Capital    Fwd div
2006-07-03 10000 340
2006-10-02 10508 368
2007-01-03 11189 355
2007-04-02 11688 402
2007-07-02 12834 406
2007-10-01 12748 431
2008-01-07 11453 449
2008-04-07 11838 489
2008-07-08 11066 514
2008-10-06 9886 543
2009-01-05 9009 518
2009-04-06 8457 490
2009-07-07 9537 511
2009-10-05 11787 533
2010-01-05 13131 542
2010-04-06 13576 571
2010-07-06 12321 599
2010-10-04 13465 579
2011-01-03 14663 598
2011-04-04 15301 563
2011-07-05 15570 617
2011-10-03 13017 699
2012-01-03 14750 627
2012-04-02 15739 664
2012-07-02 15153 690
2012-10-01 15700 708
2013-01-07 16184 773
2013-04-02 18122 774
2013-07-01 18993 734
2013-10-07 19654 761
2014-01-06 21095 776
2014-04-07 21094 849
2014-07-08 22149 795
2014-10-06 21228 877
2015-01-05 21759 895
2015-04-07 22850 934
2015-07-07 21791 905
2015-10-05 20949 924
2016-01-05 20673 989
2016-04-04 21429 1064
2016-07-05 21823 939
2016-10-03 23172 935
2017-01-03 23759 938
2017-04-03 24704 1001
2017-07-03 25204 1015
2017-10-02 25423 953
2018-01-02 27587 1015
2018-04-03 26302 1116
2018-07-02 26685 1038
2018-10-01 27196 1046
2019-01-07 24775 1116
2019-04-01 27225 1194
2019-07-01 26346 1117
2019-10-07 25902 1183
2020-01-06 28111 1208
2020-04-06 19287 1837
2020-07-07 26401 1319
2020-10-05 29149 1352
2021-01-05 33496 1407
2021-04-06 38394 1436
2021-07-06 40615 1333
2021-10-04 39978 1456
2022-01-03 41789 1523
2022-04-04 40767 1642
2022-07-05 36599 1830
2022-10-03 34537 1818
2023-01-03 38092 1785
2023-04-03 39058 1761
2023-07-03 40251 1858
2023-10-02 38497 1884
2024-01-02 43934 2005
2024-04-02 45616 1998
2024-07-01 43078 1859
2024-10-07 46235 1940
2025-01-06 43570 1926


Jim
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Members reply directly to mungofitch here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 6,115 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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