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https://discussion.fool.com/t/control-panel-uncert...The extreme uncertainly of the past 2 months has moderated slightly over the past week.
On March 15, 2025, Congress managed to pass a full-year “continuing resolution” (CR) that continues funding the federal government through the rest of the fiscal year. This eliminates the threat that the government will shut down immediately. Treasury will be able to continue to pay the government’s bills.
As expected, the FOMC kept the fed funds rate stable.
The tariff situation didn’t change last week so the markets could take a breath.
President Donald Trump imposed sweeping 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imported into the United States the week before last, a policy aimed at leveling the playing field for US manufacturing but a move that threatens to drive up prices on a broad range of consumer and industrial goods for Americans. That’s in addition to the 25% tariffs on Canada, Mexico and the EU and 20% on China. China and Canada have both retaliated against the IEEPA tariffs, while Canada and the European Union have both retaliated against the steel and aluminum tariffs. Here is a list:
Tax Foundation
Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump Tariffs
President Trump's 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico is estimated to reduce long-run GDP by 0.2 percent, reduce hours worked by 223,000 full-time equivalent jobs, and reduce after-tax incomes by an average of 0.6 percent—before accounting for...
The stock market slightly recovered its losses during last week’s reprieve from new tariffs. Investors shifted to bonds and gold. The Fear & Greed Index is in Extreme Fear. The trade is strongly risk-off.
The Treasury yield curve continued to fall.
Unlike Treasuries, the Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI), which provides a comprehensive weekly update on U.S. financial conditions in money markets, debt and equity markets, and the traditional and “shadow” banking systems, tightened slightly. Financial Stress increased slightly although both these indicators are still loose.
Since tariffs are expected to both increase inflation and slow economic growth the markets are looking forward to stagflation.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 was -1.8 percent on March 18. The Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcasting predicts Quarterly annualized percent change of the CPI of 3.85% in 2025:Q1.
The administration and DOGE have laid off many government employees but they are to be cut off in September so the numbers haven’t hit the unemployment figures yet. Congress is planning to cut programs that will directly impact poor and working class families, including Medicaid and SNAP, which will directly impact the companies that provide goods and services. Discount chains and junk food stock prices have already been impacted.
https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/are-pop-tarts-...The METAR for next week is cloudy. It’s impossible to predict the next monkey wrench that will be thrown into the machinery of trade and government in the next week.
Wendy
stockcharts.com
CandleGlance | Free Charts | StockCharts.com
Quickly and easily view and analyze mini-charts of up to 12 different symbols simultaneously, all displayed side-by-side on a single page
stockcharts.com
CandleGlance | Free Charts | StockCharts.com
Quickly and easily view and analyze mini-charts of up to 12 different symbols simultaneously, all displayed side-by-side on a single page
stockcharts.com
CandleGlance | Free Charts | StockCharts.com
Quickly and easily view and analyze mini-charts of up to 12 different symbols simultaneously, all displayed side-by-side on a single page
CNN
Fear and Greed Index - Investor Sentiment | CNN
CNN’s Fear & Greed Index is a way to gauge stock market movements and whether stocks are fairly priced. The index uses seven market indicators to help answer the question: What emotion is driving the market now?
stockcharts.com
Dynamic Yield Curve | Free Charts | StockCharts.com
Visualize the relationship between interest rates and stocks over time using our draggable, interactive yield curve charting tool.
fred.stlouisfed.org
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
Multpl
Shiller PE Ratio - Multpl
Shiller PE Ratio chart, historic, and current data. Current Shiller PE Ratio is 35.28, a change of -0.10 from previous market close.
atlantafed.org
GDPNow
Provides a
clevelandfed.org
Inflation Nowcasting
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland provides daily “nowcasts” of inflation for two popular price indexes, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). These nowcasts give a sense of where inflation...
