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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: rrr12345   😊 😞
Number: of 21944 
Subject: Re: Buffett Indicator 140%
Date: 03/11/23 4:13 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 5
"Link summarizes what The Buffett Indicator is and different ways it can be calculated."

The author doesn't show forward returns versus the Buffett indicator, but such a graph gives a reasonably good fit, with 10-year nominal returns of around 15% at the low end of the indicator scale and around 0% at the high end. The trendline of the graph of return vs indicator suggests about a 3% forward return as of today.

Just a nit-picky point regarding the article... I would not "de-trend" the Buffett ratio by assuming that it increases exponentially with time. Rather, simply plot the market cap (or S&P 500 index or Wilshire 5000 index) versus GDP (log-log) and fit a trendline to it (power law). Then plot market cap/trendline versus time to see how much the market is overvalued or undervalued at any point in time. This approach does not assume that the Buffett ratio increases exponentially with time; it simply assumes, as the data show, that market cap tends to increase as GDP increases. Just my two cents.
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This community has written 21,448 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 57 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 54 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
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