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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Personal Finance / Macroeconomic Trends & Risks
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Author: WendyBG x2🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 4460 
Subject: Volatility and Risk
Date: 04/21/25 12:49 PM
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You know that the market is volatile when a chart that is a week old isn't current enough to help read the situation.

So far the stock and bond markets are falling but that's quite different from a financial crisis where liquidity locks up (as happened in 2008), banks and brokerages fail and the system itself is threatened with collapse.

I watch VIX, the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index ( the degree of financial stress in the markets and is constructed from 18 weekly data series: seven interest rate series, six yield spreads and five other indicators), the Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI, which provides a comprehensive weekly update on U.S. financial conditions in money markets, debt and equity markets, and the traditional and “shadow” banking systems) and the CCC-rated junk bond spread.

Yahoo Finance: CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) Charts, Data & News

St. Louis Fed (FRED): St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) | FRED

chicagofed.org - Current data

St. Louis Fed (FRED): ICE BofA CCC & Lower US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLH0A3HYC) | FRED

All of these are showing stress but VIX is the only one which is up-to-the-minute. When VIX rises to 50 and the Financial Stress Index > 5 there is a genuine financial panic happening. Note that this wasn't the case in 2001 when the dot-com bubble burst, the NASDAQ Index lost 80% of its value and a recession ensued that lasted until 2002. There was not a financial crisis during the dot-com stock market collapse.

It's a real concern to me when the situation is changing so fast that data which is 10 days old seems ancient. Crises tend to blow up very quickly.

I will keep an eye on this.
Wendy

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