No. of Recommendations: 13
This last point just is beyond head scratching. Here's some numbers:
Why is that head scratching? The relevant factor isn't how many missiles get blocked, but how many get through. Iran was able to hit a fair number of targets, exactly by sending a ton of missiles and drones and overloading the systems so that a small number could get through. They haven't needed to make Bahrain a hole in the Gulf, any more than they needed to sink dozens of ships in the strait to close it. They just needed to demonstrate that they could overwhelm the defensive systems and cause massive damage to energy infrastructure if we pushed them to the brink, and that the U.S. systems couldn't completely stop their attacks. It is absolutely not in their interest to take that escalatory step at this time - just to demonstrate that they can, as a last resort, so that we don't go after their energy and domestic infrastructure.
That's what drove energy prices sky high. That's what's caused the U.S. to pivot to a ceasefire rather than bomb them back to the stone age. Because we can't stop them from blowing up the Gulf, if we take things too far. Same deterrent effect as having a nuke - you don't want to use it, just to have it so that you can't be destroyed without inflicting cataclysmic damage on your attacker.
