No. of Recommendations: 12
That chart at the end is quite illustrative.
The graph, from J.P. Morgan Asset Management, has a square for each month from 1988 through late 2024 [he means 2014], meaning there are just short of 324 monthly observations (27 years x 12). Each square shows the forward p/e ratio on the S&P 500 at the time and the annualized return over the subsequent ten years. The graph gives rise to some important observations:
There’s a strong relationship between starting valuations and subsequent annualized ten-year returns. Higher starting valuations consistently lead to lower returns, and vice versa. There are minor variations in the observations, but no serious exceptions.
Today’s p/e ratio is clearly well into the top decile of observations.
In that 27-year period, when people bought the S&P at p/e ratios in line with today’s multiple of 22, they always earned ten-year returns between plus 2% and minus 2%.
Ah, but this time it's different.
