No. of Recommendations: 10
SPY falls 50%+, and Berkshire falls 50%+....
I start with the assumption that all price rises beyond rises in fair value are transient. Though it may take a while.
If you think that applies more to SPY than to BRK, and that the rates of value generation are vaguely similar, then BRK will outperform over whatever time frame that unwinding takes.
Sure, both prices will tank similarly in a bear market, but the interesting question is what happens next. Crap soars best for a short while, but then the stuff that does well and returns to the prior trend is the stuff that wasn't overvalued when the plunge started.
Jim
