*                         2/27     3/6      3/13     3/20/23
S&P 500 Index             3970.04  4045.64  3861.59  3916.64
Trailing 12 month PE      23.12    23.58    22.41    22.74
Trail Earnings yield      4.33%    4.24%    4.46%    4.40%
Forward 12 month PE       19.71    20.12    18.73    18.96   
Fwd Earnings Yield        5.07%    4.97%    5.34%    5.28%
90 day tbill yield        4.86     4.91     5.01     4.52
10 year tbond yield       3.95%    3.97%    3.70%    3.39%
Arezi Ratio               1.12     1.16     1.12     1.03
Fed Ratio                 0.78     0.80     0.69     0.64

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 69%
stocks, 31% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is below its 200DMA. - Bearish
We are in the Nov-Apr part of the year. - Bullish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 39%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 79%.

Elan

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