If AOC were a balding middle age dude, would she be anywhere near the level she is now?

I'll answer for you - NO.

Why not? She's where she is because she has very adept skills at politics - an early mastery of social media, great in-person ability to appeal to the base, a "come from the people" biography of 'bartender to contender' that played very well in her political milieu, and a general amazing talent for campaigning. And her positions "met the moment" as the kids say - being an ardent progressive at a time when ardent progressive pushback against Democratic fixtures in safe districts was 'in the air' after Trump's win.

Granted, an actual middle age person is pretty unlikely to have the social media talents that AOC has. And in politics - as in many things - it's always better to be telegenic than not.

But no reason to think that an older male version of AOC wouldn't have done just fine. Heck, that's basically Graham Plantner, if he were running in a house district.