Couple things: How he performed vis a vis the national numbers isn’t really relevant, I don’t think, But the 3.5% margin is. Then again, that doesn’t seem so huge give the confluence of things that will be happening in this election.

We know that putting the abortion question on the ballot is bringing out Democrats in every election, and especially in Red States, and causing more split voting than is usual. That’s not a perfect metric because off-year elections don’t tend to bring out as many voters in the first place, but there is *clearly* a bump there.

Especially because Trump is advocating a “national policy”, and especially because it is his three picks who overturned Roe in the first place, I suspect this issue will work against him, and strongly. There is no question that he is able to turn out his hardcore fans, and that Biden has inflation working against him, but I suspect the abortion question is potent, particularly among younger voters who have historically not turned out in such numbers as their older peers.

It is a “female” question, and women are already skeptical of Trump, so I have hope.

Add to that the marijuana question which probably means more to younger men and women, and I’m guessing that “younger” numbers will be higher than usual, probably higher than the last election.

Finally, I would opine that the twin issues may *seem* to put Florida in play, which will be another distraction for the GOP on what should have been a safe state. Of course that cuts both ways, Biden might not have devoted so many resources to Florida if it seemed unworthwhile, but in this case I see a potential pickup.

I don’t know Florida politics, but it’s beyond imagining that Rubio doesn’t cruise to victory. Incumbency almost always wins (which is why I support limits. I know you don’t, but as the saying goes you’ll see it my way eventually because you’re smart and I’m right.)