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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
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Author: Manlobbi 🐝🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 84350 
Subject: The Case for Long-Term Buy and Hold Investing
Date: 05/13/25 10:59 AM
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The stock market is a rollercoaster, and recent times have been no exception. After a sharp 20% correction, the market has clawed its way back to its highs, even as lingering bad news—economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, tariffs on, tariffs off, and other disappointments with Donald Trump shaking things up—continues to unsettle investors.

Market corrections, like the one we’ve just endured, are unnerving. Headlines scream warnings, pundits predict doom, and the herd mentality kicks in, urging investors to sell before things “get worse.”

Yet, selling near the bottom, or at least having a low exposure at that time whether the selling was well-timed or not, often traps investors in a perilous limbo: unsure when or if to re-enter the market. This fear-driven decision can lead to missing out on the recovery, as we’ve seen with the market’s recent rebound.

The merits of long-term investing lie in its simplicity and resilience. By holding quality assets—index funds or excellent individual firms—investors can weather short-term volatility. Temporary bad news, while unsettling, rarely alters the long-term trajectory of well-managed companies or broad market indices. Reacting to negative headlines risks locking in losses and missing the eventual upswing.

Perhaps right now, with the S&P500 near its highs, is exactly the time to sell. Indeed very likely the market will at some point in the future be substantially lower again, for the CAPE is near historic highs; it is just a matter of waiting and we are assured the market will at some point be lower, at which we can buy in.

But how much lower should the market be? 30%? 40%? Should the CAPE return to its long-term average of 15? What if it remains above that for another 20 years? At what particular time will you buy in?

Now that we're being specific, here lies the risk. Investors who exit during a correction (or get it right and exit prior to the correction) often wait for “confirmation” that the market is safe, only to buy back at higher prices or miss the rally entirely. This permanent loss of opportunity can profoundly derail your long-term return.

In today’s environment, with the market recovered but uncertainty lingering, the temptation to act on fear remains. Yet, the long-term buy-and-hold approach offers clarity: stay invested, tune out the noise, and let time work its magic. The market’s history is one of resilience, and those who in the past embraced indifference to news, over panic, tended to have the best long term performance.

- Manlobbi
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