Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of BRK.ABest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of BRK.ABest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (15) |
Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝 GOLD
SHREWD
  😊 😞

Number: of 21938 
Subject: Re: Thoughts on Berkshire withdrawal strategy
Date: 07/22/25 11:41 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 7
If you do use a "2029 price" target, bear in mind that you might not want to check the situation too frequently.

Why so?
If you check daily, you will sell at the very first moment that the estimated forward return goes negative, and never get any extremely high prices for what you're selling.

If you check only every (say) month or two, there's a decent chance that some of your sales will be at levels above your target because prices kept rising until you look at them. Most stretches of high valuation tend to last for at least a couple/few months, so you're unlikely to completely miss an opportunity. And of course it's much less work! For the same reason, I wouldn't just put in a good-till-cancelled sell order for the target price.

Another thought:
On the theory of "minimize maximum regret", you could also use this strategy, but sell only half of your future need the first time an opportunity arises, then wait for another opportunity a minimum of X months later before checking prices again and considering selling the second half. One of the two is certain to get you a better price than the other. If it's the first one, you'll be glad you sold the first half when you did. If it's the second one, you'll be glad you waited to sell the second half. Either way you feel like a genius for not leaving money on the table : ) The disadvantage is that there may be only a single stretch of rich valuations in the next few years--who knows what Mr Market will feel like? But it's not exactly fatal...you'd just sell the last chunk at the last minute, which is what you were probably figuring on doing anyway.

The overall strategy isn't specific to SEPP rules - having one target price for each future period could make sense for *anyone* living from a portfolio of periodically liquidated Berkshire stock. If you need $X000 to live in 2031, sell $X000 worth of stock as soon as the market price is above what makes sense as the best guess for 2031. Sit on suitable-term TIPS till then. If most of your sales are done at prices higher than the "likely" price at the date of future expenditure, it seems reasonable to expect that you're increasing your average realized price quite a bit. You should have a lot fewer instances of having to sell a a chunk at a temporarily low price because that's all Mr Market happens to be offering on January 1 that year.

Jim
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to mungofitch here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 21,448 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 57 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 54 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (15) |


Announcements
Berkshire Hathaway FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of BRK.A | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community