Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of MacroBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of MacroBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Personal Finance / Macroeconomic Trends & Risks
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (8) |
Author: OrmontUS   😊 😞
Number: of 4460 
Subject: Re: Wall Street’s new darling: The HALO trade
Date: 02/22/26 2:47 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 4
It's an optimistic view. While the timeframe is opaque, it is clear that white-collar payroll as well as service personnel (like telephone-based customer support) are targets for using AI for cost saving (the list is rather long of impacted jobs). That means lower tax revenue to government.

If, hypothetically, 25% of national payrolls are cut, the macroeconomic fallout will be highly deflationary. While outfits, like Deere, might eke out a living on service contracts, there might not be enough spare change rattling around for McDonalds to thrive.

AI is a bigger deal in the effect on jobs than the industrial revolution, the Great Depression, etc. because there are no new job opportunities created.

The AI companies have the resources of nations and will do whatever is necessary to keep from paying compensatory taxes.

We are creating "Human V 1.5".

Jeff
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to OrmontUS here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 4,454 posts about Macroeconomic Trends & Risks. The article-length ones it recommended most:
AI Tarpits · 36 recs · 2026
End of an era - profit slowdown · 36 recs · 2023
Control Panel: Trend changes in 2026 · 34 recs · 2026
From the Oregon Bay Area (a blogger) · 33 recs · 2025
Lerner Symmetry Theorem · 32 recs · 2025
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (8) |


Announcements
Macroeconomic Trends & Risks FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of Macro | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community