I will not be surprised if Peltola loses. I have seen analyses saying she’s going to win, but that doesn’t sit with me.

It seems that anyone who voted for the “wrong” Sullivan, when he is knocked off, will likely end up going to the other Sullivan. Why would anyone vote for the “other” Sullivan except to make sure they voted for the “right” one? I suspect they would vote for both of them, and the votes would overwhelmingly flow to the majority Sullivan.

Heikes, perennial candidate, is also a Republican, so it seems unlikely that 2nd place votes on a ballot with him at the top would first go to a Democrat.

Either way, whichever smallest candidate is eliminated, I will be surprised to see the Democrat come out on top. Anything can happen, I suppose, but I’ll have to see the logic afterwards.