Hello everyone.

1. Fear and Greed Index

edition.cnn.com - Fear and greed

"Fear and Greed" was at 71 a few hours ago (it's just dropped back to 70).

That is the highest 'greed' reading of the last 12 months.

2. TA

I heard recently that there's only one bear market rally in history where the price stayed over the 50, 100, and 200 DMA for 1 week. Every other time, supposedly it signaled the beginning of a bull market. Of course, that bear rally was in 2002, and 2002 looks extremely similar to today in terms of tech hype, peak bubble CAPE valuation etc. I haven't checked this alleged factoid, nor do I have much interest in doing so, but perhaps TA enthusiasts might want to double check and comment.

3. FA

multpl.com - Shiller pe

Shiller CAPE is 29.6x

Suppose for a moment that this is a new bull market and we go up 20% from here while earnings, apparently, stagnate. That would put us back at the top 2 CAPE valuation bubbles of the last 150 years.

Right now, we're *still* in the top 4 valuation bubble levels of the last 150 years and almost in the top 3.

(Today's CAPE=29.6, black tuesday peak=30, dotcom peak= 44ish, 2021 peak=39ish)

IMHO, there's not a lot of upside potential for this to be the start of a bull market, regardless of the enthusiasm radiating from the TA charts.

lux