Cheaper energy and a political course correction in Germany will eventually fix the recession there, which is a big part of VW's market

My comment as a German, living (mostly) in Germany: This does not account for VW's biggest problem which is linked to this you write:

VW has invested heavily in electric cars whose sales have disappointed.

All German car companies were forced to do that, do fully bet on EV's, because of political pressure. But not only from the current German government. From the EU and their rules and requirements re cars now and especially in the future. Their rules and laws are responsible for phasing out petrol cars - - - and no German government can (or will) change that.

And therein, in the planning the future of the European car industry to be electric, lies (not only) VW's problem: They are WAAAYYY behind their Chinese competitors when it comes to EV's, can't compete with them. This starts with prices and ends with software. And especially the latter is a very specific VW problem or rather a catastrophe. I heard of and know myself so many people driving electric Golf's and complaining about their massive software problems and the reaction of VW dealers when they are approached, who are simply shrugging their shoulders and the official VW reactions which are kind of "That's the state of the technology, you have to accept it". Especially VW in this respect is far behind all others, not only Chinese but also behind their inner-European competitors, especially the French (Renault).

So thanks to the EU (!!!) the European car companies are forced to go all electric, and VW is the least equipped to compete in this area with Chinese or even inner-European competitors (BMW and Mercedes-Benz are having far less problems with their software platforms).

I personally would touch Nestlé - but VW? No way!
I wish you good luck and that you are right and I am wrong.