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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Personal Finance / Macroeconomic Trends & Risks
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Author: lizgdal   😊 😞
Number: of 4460 
Subject: Re: Record debt threatens growth
Date: 01/27/26 12:06 PM
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finra.org - Margin statistics

ycharts.com - Finra margin debt

en.macromicro.me - US margin debt

Margin debt is at a record high. Here's what that means for the stock market, Oct 24, 2025
"margin debt is an excellent coincident indicator of the stock market. But that doesn't help us navigate the market. Only a good leading indicator does that. And that's where the margin indicator falls flat.

Consider the correlation between margin debt's trailing 12-month percentage change and the S&P 500's total return over the subsequent 12 months. Now the r-squared is an insignificant 2.6%. In other words, margin debt's trailing 12-month return explains or predicts just 2.6% of the stock market's subsequent 12-month return.

Margin debt's acceleration. One footnote to this discussion: There is limited evidence that a market top may be forming whenever margin debt grows significantly faster than the S&P 500."
morningstar.com - Margin debt is at a record high heres what that means for the stock market
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