No. of Recommendations: 5
I think this is a regrettable but productive exercise for investing.
Let me add some thoughts:
- you should consider the nature of the conflict. Much of this is no longer a hot war. Since the adversary is a Russian state that is backed by China to indirectly establish international hegemony by weaking its rivals, and Russia is 1-3 years away from rebuilding its military to being a EU threat, they will continue attacking the foundations of EU states like the various right wing parties.
As an investment angle, I'd look investment impact on further EU social media controls. Possibly information security, or domestic social media
- in addition to political destabilization, Russia is a global swing supplier of natural gas and petroleum. They will use guerrilla attacks against pipeline infrastructure and their own hydrocarbon resources as bribes and influence.
I'd expect further action on grid resilience, energy independence, and domestic Baltic and North sea producers.
- I would expect different degrees of specialization and motivation by member state. I think the Baltic states will be more motivated from prior history, for example. UK involvement is complicated by recovery from Brexit and a prior domestic political attack, as are Germany, France, and Italy to different degrees.
There is greater risk but greater motivation in Poland, Finland, Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania.
https://stockviz.com/en/ranking-of-poland-stocks-i... is one example of companies that might be worth further interest rather than the large caps.
- The landscape of open conflict is different. Drones are a critical offensive and defensive capability. I believe space will become a wasteland in the next decade - any major conflict will result in anti-satellite warfare and will litter stable orbits with with shrapnel travelling at tens of thousands of mph. Drone based recon can be deployed more quickly on fronts and replenished more quickly.
Look at the drone supply chain and the types of drones, what types of countermeasures are necessary. The same would apply to smart munitions or missiles.
- Regardless of other outcomes, more personnel require more equipment like uniforms, body armor, radios, and so on.
So, to summarize some quick thoughts, don't overlook smaller defense companies particularly in eastern Europe. This is existential for them. Look at the nature of the conflict as bullets are becoming a smaller part of war fighting. That will may include increased emphasis on managing information warfare, managing economic warfare, and defensive and offensive drones.
I am just a person on the internet with an opinion, though.
