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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝 GOLD
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Number: of 21937 
Subject: Re: DG on sale today
Date: 08/18/23 9:25 AM
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I monitor options flow in the stocks I own. I noticed that there were a good number (1000) of Jun'24 130 strike puts bought a couple of days ago. And the price action in the stock has been weak since then. This could just be a coincidence, but I have bought some of the same puts as a hedge against my long position.

I would suggest that one not be too hasty to make a conclusion about what the traders' opinions are, nor for that matter about whether they are right about whatever reasoning it is. Just because it's a big trade doesn't mean it's a smart trade.

In this case, for example, it could also be some trader wanting to SELL those puts, which is a bullish move. It was even discussed in this thread.
The counterparty buying them can be the market maker, who will then buy stock to offset the exposure being taken on, in proportion to the option delta.

Much of what goes on in the option market is entirely rational, but only within the confines of the assumption that there is no difference between price and value and the companion assumption of price movements being symmetrical random walks. If one doesn't buy those assumptions wholeheartedly, which I sure don't, then much of what goes on in the options market is nonsensical, and expecting it to be rational or insightful or predictive is not going to work out well. There are people quite happy to pay you $5 for the ability to force you to buy a $100 bill for $75.

Jim
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This community has written 21,448 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 57 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 54 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
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