No. of Recommendations: 5
U.S. working-age population (as a percentage of the entire population) hasn't changed much in the past 50 years:
65% peak in 2007
61% trough in 2024
As a percentage, under-24 is trending down, working-age is trending down, and over-65 is increasing.
St. Louis Fed (FRED): GraphThe ratio of people ages 25 to 64 to people age 65 or older has been declining as people live longer and there are fewer births. This worker-to-retired ratio was about:
6.0 in 1955
4.2 in 1975
4.0 in 1995
3.8 in 2015
2.8 in 2025
projected 2.2 in 2055
The Demographic Outlook: 2025 to 2055, January 2025
Projected 2050 U.S. population growth is about zero.
"By 2033, annual deaths exceed annual births in CBO’s projections. After that, net immigration more than accounts for the projected population growth; without immigration, the U.S. population would shrink after 2033."
"The ratio of people ages 25 to 64 to people age 65 or older will be 2.8 to 1 in 2025, CBO projects. That ratio is projected to decline to 2.2 to 1 by 2055."
Congressional Budget Office: Publication 61164 