Can you provide a link that documents that this is happening at a sufficient enough frequency to "break" the classic burglar paradigm?

I'm going off my Nextdoor feed, which is now full of neighbors of mine discussing break-ins while they're there.

Just thinking about it, I would think that even "street junkies" would be more likely to break into cars than homes - they're easier targets, they're right there on the street, small and easily searchable in a few seconds, and you can readily make sure there's no one in them. Or steal bikes or other property kept outside, rather than breaking into a house.

Most tent encampments turn into bike chop shops after a while. LA passed some legislation around it:
bikeportland.org - Los angeles poised to adopt ban on bike chop shops
Los Angeles City Council voted 11-3 Tuesday in favor of a new law that would target people who sell and repair used bikes in public without a permit. The ordinance targets bicycle thieves who live outside and critics say it unfairly targets homeless people.
The ordinance: clkrep.lacity.org - Ord draft

You can see from the picture in the article what a typical camp looks like in terms of bikes. Had one of these about 4 blocks from my house - guy had a pile of bikes and parts outside his tent. It's not uncommon to see a guy riding one bike while pulling along another one.

The other things stolen frequently are catalytic converters (not to mention the entire car). Here's an example of such a crime in action:
kiro7.com - Armed thieves steal bellevue familys catalytic converter

This was in Bellevue, which is across Lake Washington from Seattle and is considered very safe. In the video you can see the two guys taking the cat with one of them pointing a gun at the home (which was occupied at the time).

In 2020, 181 catalytic converters were stolen. In 2021, thefts of catalytic converters increased more than five times, reaching 1077.

Stealing a catalytic converter requires a saw and a lot of noise. You think these guys give a rip that the home is occupied or not when they're making that kind of a racket?

Say the homeowner had opened the door to see what's going on. Who's to say those thieves don't force their way in at gunpoint?