No. of Recommendations: 11
The war against Iran has been a limited war, and its outcome is likely to be inconclusive. But it has achieved enough to produce a far better Middle East.
The three-month military campaign degraded Iran’s ability to project power by significantly damaging its conventional forces, missile stockpiles and proxies.
Certainly wrong. Iran's conventional forces were damaged, but whatever impact that had is completely overwhelmed by the increase in Iran's ability to project power resulting from the Strait of Hormuz and their ability to attack regional energy infrastructure. They've now demonstrated they can do both, and that the mightiest military the world has ever known lacks the ability to either force the Strait back to normal or to fully protect the other Gulf States from missile and drone attack.
Making it worse is that the damage to Iran's conventional forces is ephemeral. They will be able to rebuild all their missile and drone stockpiles within a very short time, perhaps only a matter of months. IMHO, the war has almost certainly resulted in a net increase in Iran's ability to project power already - the gains from their Hormuz play and the missile attacks on other Gulf States far outweighs losing some of their missiles and such. But even if one agreed with Condi that the degradation to their conventional forces, missile stockpiles and proxies was "significant" enough to outweigh the gains they've made, that will be erased very quickly after the war is over.
The war also had global implications. It showed that China is no friend of the Arab world, as Beijing watched from the sidelines as Iran attacked the economic infrastructure of the region.
It certainly showed that the U.S. is not so great to the Arab world, either. We never consulted with them or solicited their input before we catapulted the region into chaos. We showed that we are unable to protect them against Iranian attacks and forced them to absorb the direct physical damage from Iran's missiles and drones and the economic damage from the Strait being closed. Beijing may have watched from the sidelines but we were the proximate cause of Iran attacking the economic infrastructure of the region. We demonstrated that having U.S. bases on their property doesn't contribute to their security, and indeed probably detracts from it.
Methinks Condi is really trying to put some lipstick on a pig, here.
