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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝 GOLD
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Number: of 21944 
Subject: Re: Thinking of BV multiple for BRK as a function of i
Date: 02/07/23 4:36 PM
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The bigger Berkshire becomes and average returns drift lower will it become a self fulfilling prophecy that the slower trajectory of growth will cause it to trade at lower valuation multiples of for example PBV over the next 10 / 20 years.

Sure.

But remember: their capital allocation skills will presumably fade gradually from excellent towards typical, not from excellent to useless.

The average US stock in the average year has historically returned around inflation + 6.5% on purchase price.
i.e., that's what a monkey with a dartboard might expect in a year that the stock market is not overvalued.

So, I see Berkshire's future rate of growth in value per share converging slowly down towards that number--let's be conservative and round down to 6%.
When they reach that number they will be no better than an average pick.
But inflation + 6% is not so bad.

At that point, the only reason Berkshire would be a good pick is that it's frequently cheaper than the broad market.
And it doesn't contain as many odious business units, depending on your tastes.

None of this suggests that the fair P/B for Berkshire will drop.
That will be determined primarily by how they allocate their incremental capital.
Their stocks and bonds will deserve a multiple of 1.
Wholly owned businesses units doing capex will deserve a higher multiple.
(median P/B among S&P 500 firms is 3.5 these days. Maybe a bit rich, but they generally deserve much more than 1)
Whatever mix Berkshire ends up with will give fair value somewhere in the middle.
These days, somewhere in the 1.5 range seems to work.

The simple way to know what the "fair" P/B should be? Watch the trajectory of ROE.
If ROE is sliding on trend over time, the fair P/B should be lower. And vice versa.

Jim
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This community has written 21,448 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 57 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 54 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
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