Post #4903 by mungofitch on the Berkshire Hathaway board

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big pharma is working aggressively to suppress appetites. It’s hard to believe any product can successfully reduce my, need, for chocolates in large quantities, but it’s certainly a serious risk factor going forward.

I think there is a narrative that it might be a risk factor, but I'm not buying it.
Among many other things, most chocolate isn't consumed because of hunger, it's to seek the joy of the flavour experience.

I think the much bigger risk factor for the chocolate industry is the supply chain. Most cacao is grown by extremely poor smallholders. That will change, and the supply chain with it. I imagine prices will rise a lot, and artificial flavours have got pretty much nowhere despite decades of effort.

Similarly, the current economics of coffee beans probably doesn't make sense in the long term. It's way too labour intensive.

Still great businesses, but I think those are the biggest risk factors.

Jim

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