A little too soon for predictions but it should be pointed out that Florida voters also will have a chance to weigh in on an issue the state’s Republican-led Legislature has rejected for years and that just may bring out younger voters: the legalization of recreational marijuana use.

Perhaps. But Trump won Florida in 2020 by about 3.5%, which is a pretty big margin and eight points better than his national numbers. We've got a mostly moribund state Democratic party, and the state has been trending more Republican for decades now. While the MJ and abortion initiatives may bring more Democrats to the polls, it's hard to see that completely overcoming those larger factors. Certainly the Biden campaign will start by making a play for Florida, in case there's any weakness or weird Kennedy impacts that change that dynamic. But I expect that by early October, we'll be triaged in favor of devoting campaign resources to places that are more likely to be the tipping point state.

What will be more interesting is whether Mucuarsel-Powell at all competitive against Rick Scott in the Senate race. Scott's not the most charismatic or dynamic leader, but he has the advantage of incumbency and a full statewide political operation. If the Senate race is close, and nationwide Democrats pour money into it all the way to the end, the Biden campaign might take a flyer on really competing for the state. If that's the case, and the Presidential race is at all close, Biden's team might stay through to the end.