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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", sykesix asked the members: "What do you do if you arrive early at movie besides go to the snack bar?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: rando ✶  😊 😞
Number: of 22989 
Subject: Re: Effect of buybacks
Date: 11/10/26 11:43 AM
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I think I still disagree. I haven't completely thought it through, but even if you discount perfectly, it still depends on what exactly you discount BY. If you discount by EXACTLY the average rate of T-bills then perhaps yes. But why would anyone discount a prospering company by only roughly inflation plus a few basis points (where T-bills typically trade)? You would surely discount it by a higher rate than that because it is growing by more than a few real basis points.

I think what you're missing is the difference between increases in intrinsic value versus forward-looking expected returns. If you go from:
[a bundle of operating companies plus investments plus substantial excess cash]

to

[a bundle of operating companies plus investments plus far less excess cash]

you have changed the risk of the investment, and you should apply a higher discount rate to the expected cash flows of the (riskier) post-buyback enterprise.

when you say this:
After that, they don't cancel each other out anymore. That's because when you use $5B of cash to buy $5B of shares, you are disposing of something that is growing at 3.9% (nominal) a year, and buying something that is growing at something higher than that, maybe 10% (nominal) a year. In essence, you are selling a $5B T-bill yielding 3.9%, and buying(very roughly) 20% T-bills, 50% varied company stocks, and 30% wholly owned companies (or whatever the ratio is today).

I think you end up with the conclusion that replacing all your low-risk, low-expected return assets with higher-risk, higher-expected return assets is value creating. It's not true for repurchases in the same way that it's not true of buying $10 billion worth of Google for $10 billion in cash (assuming Google is fairly valued) - it's just choosing a more aggressive point on the risk/return spectrum.





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This community has written 22,499 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 58 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 55 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
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