In 1980, the biologist Paul Ehrlich agreed to a bet with the economist Julian Simon on how the prices of five materials would change over the next decade.

Paul Ehrlich had a clear expectation. He thought population growth would quickly deplete the planet’s resources. As a consequence, he expected that the cost of resources — including minerals — would rise steeply as they became more scarce.

This claim got the attention of Julian Simon, who expected the opposite. Simon thought that human innovation and ingenuity would overcome resource shortages, and the price of resources would, therefore, not rise but fall. In the pages of the Social Science Quarterly, he challenged Ehrlich to put money on the line.

Simon offered Ehrlich the chance to choose any resource he wanted for the bet. Ehrlich chose five: chromium, copper, nickel, tin, and tungsten. The two bet $1,000 — $200 on each metal — on whether inflation-adjusted prices of these resources in September 1990 would be higher or lower than they were in September 1980. If prices had increased, Ehrlich would win. If they had fallen, victory would go to Simon.

This article has an interesting discussion of who won and why.

ourworldindata.org - Simon ehrlich bet

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