Post #3426 by elann on the Mechanical Investing board

Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing

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The Arezi ratio, relying on projected forward 12 month earnings, is not yet tracking current events. Projected earnings will be rapidly ratcheted down to account for the tremendous global trade barriers that have just been erected, with more coming by the day.

Absolutely true, probably. But I'm in no position to correct the numbers being reported on the S&P web site. It typically takes a long time, many months after a recession has set in, for as-reported and forward looking earning estimates to reflect the changing business environment. In a deep recession like we saw in 2008 aggregate earnings of the S&P500 companies can actually turn negative.

Elan

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