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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝 GOLD
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Number: of 21939 
Subject: Re: Potential Elephants
Date: 07/19/26 8:07 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 17
Hershey would be good but the Trust complicates matters

It's certain that a deal wouldn't happen unless the trust thought it was a good idea as a new home for the firm. Having 99% of the votes will do that. But on the other hand, if they ever did think it was a good idea, it might increase the chances of a direct deal rather than an auction. In that sense it's a bit like buying a private company.

Aren't GLP-1's a worry for HSY and MARS too ?

Opinions differ. They have certainly been a worry for the share price : )
Like most purveyors of junk, their stock prices are not as in fashion as they once were. But it isn't showing up in the business results. Very slow top line growth continues, which has been the case for a long time. I think that, for most people, their peak consumption of Hershey products is at ages before their peak concerns about / actions against obesity. Weight loss drugs are a bigger threat to firms dependent on selling junk to people who are already at their fat and richer stage of life. I think one might see slower growth in their relatively fast-growing salty snacks division than we might otherwise, but it's not that big a division at present.

The biggest problems in my view are:
* the long term viability of the cacao supply chain at prices people are willing to pay. It's far from their only input, but it is pretty necessary.
* that aforementioned very slow growth. What is a very very solid cash cow worth? You probably need to price it rather like a perpetual bond with a coupon rising with inflation (or a bit more), which is why I think it might suit Berkshire. I expect the dividend should soon be 3.5% of current price, which might be enough to look good in Omaha.

Short term comps seem likely to be very good this year and next, but as the largest US confectionery firm which doesn't seem to succeed much outside the US (still only ~10% of sales despite selling in 65 countries), it's not really a growth story. Though very much more of a growth story than Coke, so there's that.

Interesting side note: Berkshire is technically their biggest client. 27% of all their sales are to McLane.

Jim
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This community has written 21,448 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 57 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 54 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
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