No. of Recommendations: 17
Hershey would be good but the Trust complicates matters
It's certain that a deal wouldn't happen unless the trust thought it was a good idea as a new home for the firm. Having 99% of the votes will do that. But on the other hand, if they ever did think it was a good idea, it might increase the chances of a direct deal rather than an auction. In that sense it's a bit like buying a private company.
Aren't GLP-1's a worry for HSY and MARS too ?
Opinions differ. They have certainly been a worry for the share price : )
Like most purveyors of junk, their stock prices are not as in fashion as they once were. But it isn't showing up in the business results. Very slow top line growth continues, which has been the case for a long time. I think that, for most people, their peak consumption of Hershey products is at ages before their peak concerns about / actions against obesity. Weight loss drugs are a bigger threat to firms dependent on selling junk to people who are already at their fat and richer stage of life. I think one might see slower growth in their relatively fast-growing salty snacks division than we might otherwise, but it's not that big a division at present.
The biggest problems in my view are:
* the long term viability of the cacao supply chain at prices people are willing to pay. It's far from their only input, but it is pretty necessary.
* that aforementioned very slow growth. What is a very very solid cash cow worth? You probably need to price it rather like a perpetual bond with a coupon rising with inflation (or a bit more), which is why I think it might suit Berkshire. I expect the dividend should soon be 3.5% of current price, which might be enough to look good in Omaha.
Short term comps seem likely to be very good this year and next, but as the largest US confectionery firm which doesn't seem to succeed much outside the US (still only ~10% of sales despite selling in 65 countries), it's not really a growth story. Though very much more of a growth story than Coke, so there's that.
Interesting side note: Berkshire is technically their biggest client. 27% of all their sales are to McLane.
Jim