It’s just as likely that the need to use the toy now has led to war.

It's not a "toy." It was a deadly serious (and successful) act of sabotage that crippled Hezbollah's communication network (and hindered their ability to replace it, since they have to be suspicious of any alternative technology). It injured several thousand of their personnel. It demoralized them and cast doubt on the capabilities of their leadership, certainly their counter-intelligence folks.

Not everything is about us. Not everything revolves around the things that we think are important, like who wins the Presidency. Israel, like every country on earth, has their own domestic issues and policy concerns and national interests and everything else that influences both their electorate and their political leaders. Netanyahu, like every politician everywhere, is going to be first and foremost concerned with his own domestic electorate, and not the possible second- or third-order effects of going to war on the election in another country. Even the U.S.