I have a question for the 'Mechanical Investing' Pro's which is related to what Manlobbi just wrote about staying 100% invested versus market timing: Of what value are or how to properly use the Bear Catchers?

Date Signal SMA NH/NL DBE
20221223 0 Bear Bear Bear
20220822 0 Bear Bear Bear
20220805 2 Bear Bull Bear
20220525 0 Bear Bear Bear
20220428 4 Bear Bear Bull
20220331 5 Bull Bear Bull
20220324 7 Bull Bull Bull
20211118 5 Bull Bear Bull
20211013 7 Bull Bull Bull
20211004 5 Bull Bear Bull
20210825 7 Bull Bull Bull
20210817 5 Bull Bear Bull
20210721 7 Bull Bull Bull
20210716 5 Bull Bear Bull
20201103 7 Bull Bull Bull
20201030 5 Bull Bear Bull

Have a look at the 'big bear' that followed the Dec 2021 high of S&P 4800:

- SMA and DBE stayed bullish until Apr 28. That was the first time more than one turned to 'Bear'. Finally a clear bearish signal --- but far too late to have been useful, as with around 4100 the S&P already was down nearly 20% from it's Dec 4800 high. And it's not as it would have helped to avoid another big longer term downdraft either. Though it did fall another 10% in the following month it did rise from there 20% in the then following one.

- Worse: Mar 24, after the S&P rising 10% in the previous 2 weeks, NH/NL also turned to 'Bull'. The perfectly wrong time for that triple bullish signal as exactly from then on it was going 20% down, from 4550 first straight to 3900 and shortly after further to 3550.

- And again: After being triple bearish since May 25 on Aug 05 NH/NL turned bullish. The perfectly wrong time as that was the top after a 20% rise and directly before the following 15% fall.

Mechanical Investing FAQ

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