A gazillion years ago I signed up for an email newsletter from BankRegData.com. I think BankRegData is, more-or-less, a one man operation run by Bill Moreland. The service appears to digitally harvest data from FDIC and the Federal Reserve, collates it, and puts it all into a useable format. Bill also does a bunch of analysis and occasionally sends out a great newsletter via e-mail. I have learned A TON from reading these (free!) newsletters over the years.

Anyway, Bill posted this interesting video about Flagstar Bank (NYSE: FLG). It's worth a watch:

YouTube: 2024 Q4 Flagstar Bank Update (BankRegData)

Basically, Bill sees Flagstar as very unlikely to be operating as an independent entity in 12 months time. Read as "gobbled up by a larger bank" or "shut down by regulators." Maybe a shotgun marriage "hosted" by a banking regulator.

The fundamental problem seems to be bad performance in Multifamily Residential Loans (five or more units, like apartments).

Bill doesn't talk about it in the video but I wondered why FLG is getting whacked with so much bad performance in their Multifamily loan portfolio. Partly it's an industry trend. But FLG seems to be a standout. It seems that FLG has a large footprint in the NYC/Tri-State/Long Island area. Not sure if that's where their multifamily loans are concentrated too. Or if they just did a horrible job underwriting. Maybe both.

Anyway, BankRegData is awesome!