When you ask why Upstart hasn't
done better, I take it you mean why hasn't the stock done better.

...

As for reasons for optimism about Upstart, I'd shelve stock performance for the moment and focus on the
business.



I was referring to the business, actually. I agree that the stock price probably got way ahead of itself, but a few years ago, I think investors were very optimistic not just about share price appreciation but about the potential of this business to outperform in the lending market. When I look at revenues aver the last few years, they don't seem to justify that optimism - 2020: $229m, 2021: $801, 2022: $907m, 2023: $560m; 2024 Q1: $138m. Same thing with gross profits - 2020: $204m, 2021: $734, 2022: $665m, 2023: $398, 2024 Q1: $99. Over the same time period, the share count has gone from 17m to 85m, so the employees are doing well, but for an outside shareholder, it's hard to see how this can be called a successful business if it's unprofitable AND revenues are barely up from 3 years ago.

Of course higher interest rates don't help them, but I see no reason to be confident that interest rates are going to come down significantly, with fairly persistent inflation and long-term rates not much lower; overnight rates are 5.3% with a long-term average rate of 5.42% percent between 1971 and 2024.

Or is there something that has been holding back Upstart's business that might allow for more optimism in the next few years?

dtb