No. of Recommendations: 3
S&P500 sales growth is about 4%/yr since 2000 (4% for 8 yrs, then 1% for 8yrs, then 7% for 8yrs). Current divi yield is ~1.3%. Suggests not much more than 5%/yr total return going forward (to me, anyway; 4.1% + 1.3% = 5.4%).
10yr treasuries pay ~4.3%. Hmmmm ....Also if the current high valuation levels of the S&P500 do return to a more normal range anytime soon, the contracting multiples will lower that 5%. Perhaps considerably.
(All depends on how far and how fast those historically normal valuations return, if ever!)
Current S&P500 P/E 28. For some perspective: In 2011 it was 14.
Current S&P500 Dividend Yield 1.3%. For some perspective: In 2011 it was 2.12%.
Current Shiller S&P500 P/E 35. In 2011 it was 20.
Current S&P500 Price To Sales Ratio 2.91. In 2011 it was 1.3.
Current S&P500 Price To Book 4.87. In 2011 it was 2.
Current S&P500 Earnings Yield 3.52%. In 2011 it was 7%.
Or perhaps it's different this time!
I used Shillers site for #'s:
multpl.com - S p price to book
