Why is Trump suddenly looking weaker? Polls have given him very low marks since the spring, but his net approval has declined significantly over the past month. And while Trump just claimed that he has THE HIGHEST POLL NUMBERS OF MY “POLITICAL CAREER” — nobody knows what poll, if any, he’s referring to — most doubts about the validity of polls showing his extreme unpopularity were dispelled by blowout Democratic victories in Virginia and New Jersey on Nov. 4.

These electoral defeats have shaken the willingness of Republicans in Congress to keep showing lockstep obedience to Trump. At the same time, the growing furor over Trump’s ties to Jeffrey Epstein has rattled the MAGA base. Many political analysts, I suspect, don’t fully appreciate the extent to which many members of that base truly believed that Trump was protecting the world against Democratic pedophiles, and the degree to which they have been shaken by the growing realization that they may have gotten their heroes and villains mixed up. —Paul Krugman