"A bubble is a terrible thing to waste. There is a lot of money to be made on the way up (something I'm happy to sit out), but also a lot of money to be made on the way down. I think I was probably one of the larger individual holders of BEARX 2000-2002 : )

I've been thinking of starting a thread about how best to make a few bucks if markets behave unpleasantly in the next (say) 2-3 years. Say, allocating 1.5% of my portfolio to an asymmetrical bet: heads I win a lot, tails I don't lose much. It's hard to say where the worst pain will be, AI exuberance or private credit.

It's way off topic here, but there are some fairly insightful folks here. Also on the Falling Knives board, but it is thinly populated.

Jim"


Some months ago American Bitcoin (Trump sons crypto firm) made an IPO.

The business plan was "trading bitcoin".

It was pretty obvious that this stock in the next bear market will be probably zero.

So the first day insider could sell their shares, the stock went down more than 50%.

John Templeton had a strategy of shorting internet stocks, when insider were allowed to sell.

American Bitcoin was the same.