I'm open to the possibility that the attack was not a mistake.

Agreed. I'd feel better if I knew POTUS read intelligence reports and paid attention in briefings. But I know the opposite to be true (from his first term), so it is up in the air whether it was a good idea.

The reports I have seen indicate that we likely set back their program by a matter of months, not years. Certainly not "obliterated".

You had an excellent point about conflicting imperatives. This likely would tip the scale towards "race for a nuke". I have no idea if that will be the result, however. Did it tip it enough?? Hopefully not. I don't think this gave any momentum to the anti-regime forces in Iran (such as they are). It may have worked against them.

On our side, we don't have a lot of those MOPs. And we just burned several of what we do have. Fourteen, to be exact. I saw one source that says we probably have about 30, but I can't confirm that. So we used up half, if that report was correct.