Was this the thread?

http://www.datahelper.com/mi/search.phtml?thread=3...


Yes! Exactly. I sshould have thought of datahelper.

That was from not even 2 years ago, I thought it was longer. Money quotes:

"Ajit Jain also answered the same shareholder's question about this rivalry, explaining that underwriting profit is a function of 2 major variables: the expense ratio and the loss ratio. He said that GEICO is better at controlling expenses, with a 7-point advantage, whereas Progressive does what Jain called 'a much better job' on the loss ratio side, with about a 12 point advantage. He also said 'sometimes GEICO is ahead of Progressive, and right now, Progressive is ahead of GEICO', but he hoped that could be fixed with a variety of projects underway. Buffett added that 'To some extent, it's a 2 horse race, and we have a very good horse - but they have a very good horse as well.' And Munger added that it's in the nature of things that 'every once in a while, there's someone who's better at things than we are.' Buffett's response: 'yeah, I'd settle for second place in a lot of businesses.' "

and

"... as Buffett says, being #2 is still pretty good, but if there's a clear frontrunner, maybe that could be a pretty good investment?

Progressive has turned in spectacular results in the last few years, with net earnings going from $1.6b in 2017, $2.6b in 2018, $3.9b in 2019, and $5.7b last year, and $1.5b just last quarter. Market cap is currently $58b, so they are at under 10 times their most recent earnings. Clearly some of that may not be sustainable, with COVID having provided a windfall, but they are only about 14 times pre-COVID 2019 earnings. They are growing more quickly than GEICO. They have tripled their share price in the last 5 years, but their earnings are up more than 5 times. They have low debt, and pay out most of their earnings every year with a special dividend."

Reading all that again, and the helpful replies in the same thread, I can't believe I ever sold my stake. Sitting on one's ass is not as easy for me as it is for Munger and Buffett, it seems, and is something I definitely have to learn to do better with great companies like Progressive. (Great according to Buffett, Munger and Jain, so who am I to disagree?)

dtb