" One of the difficulties of active investing is that it is difficult to measure competence except over very long periods of time. Investors cannot truly know if they are adding value above and beyond index funds until they have gone through at least one full market cycle, a process that usually takes many years.

In the short run, it is very difficult to separate luck from skill, although it is possible to judge a new investor’s thought process. I would think more highly of an inexperienced investor with a good thought process who happened to trail the S&P 500 last year compared to a speculator who somehow quadrupled his money in Fartcoin. Unfortunately, it is very possible for an investor to have a seemingly sound process but still fail to add value in the long run. Only time truly separates skill from luck."

newsletter.rationalwalk.com - A quarter century of investing