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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
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Author: PucksFool ✧✺🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 84361 
Subject: A new recession prediction
Date: 03/07/25 9:16 AM
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Predictions are hard especially about the future. - attributed to Yogi Berra

There were so many predictions about an impending recession during Biden's presidency that I just stopped listening to them. The one thing I don't remember them having was a projected starting time. This one has that.

finance.yahoo.com - Why there is chance of a recession in months strategist
With around-the-clock tariff headlines pounding stocks, recession calls or predictions for a sharp economic slowdown are coming into the light.

The most dire one dropped today.

BCA Research's veteran strategist Peter Berezin said he sees a 75% chance of a recession within the next three months.

"Conventional estimates understate the likely impact on economic activity from the trade war and DOGE cuts. This implies that growth will slow more than expected," Berezin said.

Berezin outlined three key underpinnings to his prediction.

First, higher tariffs hammer real incomes of workers, which slows demand. Two, the shoddy way tariffs policy is being handled is raising public and business uncertainty. And lastly, tariffs are likely to push up inflation and make the Federal Reserve less willing to cut interest rates.
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This community has written 84,309 posts about US Policy. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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