No. of Recommendations: 3
2)Elon says safety driver gone by the end of the year.
3)2M downloaded the Robotaxi app on the first day.
I don't think there is much signal here. We can get a good sense of where Tesla really believes they are in regards to L4 autonomous ride hailing by looking at where they are in the regulatory process. Thus far, Tesla has not applied for specific AV ride hailing permits in any jurisdiction. We know from Waymo's and Cruise's experience in California and elsewhere this can take many months, sometimes over a year depending on how you look at it. Ride hailing permits in general can take a long time. So knowing the long time lines required, why hasn't Tesla at least started the permit process in a number of jurisdictions even if they intend to roll it out slowly? The reasons are pretty clear: Tesla doesn't think their tech is good enough to pass the regulatory hurdles. They won't apply for permits until they think they can get them.
Texas is a special case. Tesla does have a general ride hailing permit which includes AVs. However, AV's must be certified as safe by the Texas DMV. TxDMV's rules are expected to be promulgated by the end of the year, and go into effect six months after that.
So even if the tech is ready, the safety driver will still be there by the end of the year for regulatory reasons alone.
