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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝 GOLD
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Number: of 21940 
Subject: Re: 2nd quarter earnings release date
Date: 08/04/23 11:16 AM
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Actually I intended to sell a little Berkshire today - but this I didn't take into account, raising the question whether to rather wait until next week.
May I ask what the ones here having closely followed Berkshire's actions and portfolio during the last quarter expect?


For whatever it's worth, I lightened up a bit yesterday. I sold about 4% of my holdings.
That doesn't mean it was a good idea. And recall that I live from my portfolio, I am not an accumulator.

The stock is in that twilight zone of being higher than the average valuation multiple, but lower than what it's probably worth.
I don't expect double digits in the next year. One of my models predicts one year returns around inflation + 4.6% from today's $352.60 per B, most of my other models expect a bit less.
I'll have fresher expectations after I read the statements tomorrow.

The main thing I'm going to be looking for in the quarterly statements is the after-tax operating earnings on the "steady things".
Rails, Utilities, Manufacturing/Service/Retail.
The last three quarters these have come out quite a lot below my model expectations based on trend and seasonality, so these units definitely have not been keeping up with inflation lately.
Perhaps part of that is a lag effect, part of it some supply-chain price problems, and part of it is just some cyclical weakness in the economy, but it's a trend that I hope will end.
If we expect extremely powerful pricing power from our collection of allegedly high-moat operating businesses, it isn't showing up so far in this bout of inflation.
Prior to these last three quarters (and 2020-Q1 of course) these things taken together were very easy to predict quite well.

Jim
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This community has written 21,448 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 57 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 54 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
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