*                         4/6      4/13     4/20     4/27/26
S&P 500 Index             6582.69  6816.89  7122.81  7165.08
Trailing 12 month PE      28.21    29.28    30.24    30.54
Trail Earnings yield      3.54     3.42%    3.31%    3.27%
Forward 12 month PE       21.19    21.19    20.68    20.68
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.72%    4.72%    4.84%    4.84%
90 day tbill yield        3.71     3.69     3.70     3.69
10 year tbond yield       4.35%    4.31%    4.26%    4.31%
Arezi Ratio               1.05     1.08     1.12     1.13
Fed Ratio                 0.92     0.91     0.88     0.89

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 64%
stocks, 36% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the Nov-Apr part of the year. - Bullish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is normal. - Bullish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 54%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 86%.

Elan

Mechanical Investing FAQ

---

Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.