Back on TMF, we had a lot of discussions about Trump's performance in office during his first term. I frequently claimed that Trump was bad at "presidenting" - the ability to skillfully use the office to accomplish his specific goals. He often tried to run the Presidency as if the federal government had the same characteristics as the closely held family-owned corporate organizations he's spent his life running. Because the Presidency isn't like that, he made a number of missteps that made it harder to implement his policies.

The general assumption is that Trump has learned from that experience. He seems to have genuinely grasped the "personnel is policy" lesson (the President is not the only 'boss' in the federal government, and if you want the agencies to do more what you want and less what Congress wants you have to staff them that way). He also has learned the importance of taking a more active role in dealing with Congress politically. Granted, he has more power within the party now than he did in 2016 - but he's also made it more of a focus.

So - now a key test is coming up. Congress is wrapped around the axle over whether to pursue Trump's budgetary agenda (border funding, energy funding, and tax policy) in one bill or two. The Senate prefers two bills, the House a single one.

I don't know what the right answer is (or if there is a "right" answer at all). The test isn't what call Trump makes on this issue - it's whether he makes a call at all. Trump's management style in his private business has often been to let subordinates have conflicts amongst themselves, with the idea being that prevailing in that internal fight is a good indication of which was the better idea. But that's not the best path forward, here - the exceedingly tight calendar, combined with a weak Speaker and a narrow majority in the House means that Congress will have a lot of difficulty getting everything done if they don't decide quickly what path they'll take. And that requires a Presidential choice, because Johnson and Thune aren't in positions of sufficient power to dictate to their members any given path.

It will be interesting to see if Trump steps in to make that choice, or if he continues his current path of hedging his bets. My cynical prediction is that he won't make a clear call, so that he can take credit if things work out but blame legislative leaders if the reconciliation bill(s) gets into trouble. But we'll see...

politico.com - Trump gop confusion reconciliation plan