No. of Recommendations: 6
A couple days w/o a post.
Here's something from our old message board host:
"This indicator uses the spread (difference in yields) between the three-month and 10-year Treasury bonds to forecast how likely it is that a U.S. recession will materialize over the coming 12 months."
" A yield-curve inversion doesn't guarantee the U.S. will fall into a recession; but it is worth noting that every recession after World War II has been preceded by a yield-curve inversion."
S
"According to ... the NY Fed's recession-probability indicator, there's a 68.22% chance the U.S. will enter a recession over the next 12 months. That's the highest probability of a recession occurring in the next 12 months in 41 years. Not coincidentally, we're also witnessing the largest yield-curve inversion between the three-month and 10-year note in more than four decades.
Since 1959, there have been eight instances where the NY Fed's recession-forecasting tool has exceeded a 40% probability of an economic downturn. With the exception of October 1966, every other previous instance of a reading above 40% has resulted in the U.S. economy dipping into a recession. That's 57 years (and counting) without a miss. "
https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/05/14/this-rec... 