What are the odds that Trump will try to get a young MAGA-leaning judge on the SCOTUS before the democrats take over in January? I'd say pretty high.

I'd say near-zero.

No Justice is likely to make a snap decision on retiring in the next two weeks or so. And they're even less likely to do it when there's considerable uncertainty over whether the Senate could get a replacement through.

There probably isn't enough time between now and January 3 to get through the process to begin with, once you account for the Thanksgiving and Christmas Recess. And even if there was, the GOP only has 52 seats (Sherrod Brown's election was actually a special election to fill out the remainder of Vance's 2022 term, so he's going to be seated in mid-December). Which means you can only lose two GOP Senators for some quick confirmation. Do Alito or Thomas want to gamble their legacy against three of Tillis, Cornyn, McConnell, Kennedy, Murkowsi, and Collins not deciding they don't want to play that game? Or risk giving Roberts effective veto power over a 4-4 Court for the next two years?